PMI Summer 2008 Risk Index Indicates Risk Intensifying in Areas With Previous Rapid Home Price Growth
WALNUT CREEK, Calif., July 1 PRNewswire-FirstCall
PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., the primary U.S. subsidiary of The PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE: PMI), today released its Summer 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index(SM), which ranks the nation's 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) according to the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years. In general, risk continued to intensify in many of the MSAs where home price growth had significantly exceeded historical norms during the housing boom, but continued to decline in many other areas across the country.
A complete copy of the Summer 2008 PMI ERET report and an appendix that provides data for all 381 U.S. MSAs is available at: http://www.pmi-us.com/eret.
The highest risk of future price declines remains in Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA (95.5), followed by Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL (92.2), and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL (91.9). The areas with the lowest risk of price declines are in Fort Worth-Arlington, TX, Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX, and Pittsburgh, PA, each at less than a 1 percent chance. The risk of lower prices in two years declined in 35 of the nation's 50 largest MSAs, and among all 381 MSAs, 326 experienced a decline in risk. Among the top 50 MSAs, 16 ranked in the two highest risk categories, and among those, 15 were in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. Risk of lower prices in two years is greater than 50 percent in all of these MSAs.
Risk scores translate directly into an estimated percentage risk that home prices will be lower in two years. The Summer 2008 Risk Index is based on first-quarter Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) data.
PMI Summer 2008 PMI U.S. Market Risk Index
Rank MSA Score
1 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario; CA 95.5
1 Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach; FL 92.2
1 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach; FL 91.9
1 Orlando-Kissimmee; FL 91.1
1 Las Vegas-Paradise; NV 88.1
1 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater; FL 86.6
1 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine; CA 85.8
1 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale; CA 85.7
1 Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall; FL 84.8
1 Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville; CA 82.2
1 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale; AZ 79.6
1 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos; CA 78.0
1 Jacksonville; FL 73.2
1 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward; CA 72.8
2 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara; CA 51.3
2 Providence-New Bedford-Fall River; RI-MA 43.4
3 San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City; CA 35.7
3 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria; DC-VA-MD-WV 21.4
3 Nassau-Suffolk; NY 21.2
4 Edison-New Brunswick; NJ 16.2
4 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News; VA-NC 13.8
4 Boston-Quincy; MA 11.8
4 Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn; MI 11.1
5 Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton; OR-WA 8.7
5 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington; MN-WI 8.2
5 Newark-Union; NJ-PA 6.5
5 New York-White Plains-Wayne; NY-NJ 6.0
5 Baltimore-Towson; MD 5.5
5 Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills; MI 5.3
5 Cambridge-Newton-Framingham; MA 4.3
5 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta; GA 2.0
5 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett; WA 1.7
5 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet; IL 1.5
5 Philadelphia; PA 1.4
5 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin; TN 1.3
5 St. Louis; MO-IL 1.0
5 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis; WI <1
5 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor; OH <1
5 Austin-Round Rock; TX <1
5 Denver-Aurora; CO <1
5 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord; NC-SC <1
5 Kansas City; MO-KS <1
5 Columbus; OH <1
5 Cincinnati-Middletown; OH-KY-IN <1
5 Indianapolis-Carmel; IN <1
5 San Antonio; TX <1
5 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown; TX <1
5 Pittsburgh; PA <1
5 Dallas-Plano-Irving; TX <1
5 Fort Worth-Arlington; TX <1
SOURCE PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.
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